Photos
I will confess to having a bias in favor of rail. But my bias is not based on a political point of view, as some have charged in comments responding to my past columns on the subject of Metrorail to Loudoun.
I do like trains. Some of my favorite trips have been by rail. I may even have a genetic predisposition in that regard. Both my father and grandfather worked for the railroad for their entire careers, as did several other relatives.
But my bias on the issue of Metrorail to Loudoun is based more on my personal experience, having spent most of my life living in three metropolitan areas with the some of the worst traffic congestion in the United States – Chicago, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C.
Chicago, where I grew up, has extensive networks of both roads and trains. The Chicago suburbs developed along rail lines still that fan out from downtown Chicago like spokes on a wheel. The older suburbs developed along the commuter rail stops. Over time, urban sprawl filled in the empty spaces.
When I was growing up, my family lived about a mile from one of the suburban train stations. Most days, my dad would walk to the station and take the train into the city. The trains were roomy and comfortable, and he could unwind while reading the evening newspaper on the way home from work. The trains ran on time, and we could count on him arriving home at the same time every day.
When I was old enough to have a little bit of independence, I could take the train into the city long before my parents would have allowed me to drive there.
Chicago’s road system is also highly developed. It is mostly a grid system, with an overlay of expressways and toll roads. If a road is blocked because of an accident or road construction, there are usually lots of alternative routes.
I later lived in Los Angeles County for eight years. Like Chicago, it had lots of roads laid out mostly in a grid, with some diagonals, and an overlay of freeways.
But Los Angeles lacked a rail alternative. The transportation system for metropolitan Los Angeles was centered almost completely on cars. Once there had been an electric streetcar system that connected cities throughout the region, but it was eventually supplanted by freeways.
The freeways were good for moving high volumes of cars through the region. But if a freeway was backed up, which was common, surface streets were not usually a great alternative, because they would likely be backed up as well.
My experience in the Washington, D.C. area has been as a resident of Loudoun County, well beyond the reach of Metro. The road system, at least out here in the exurbs, is much less developed than in the more urban places I have lived before.
There is no interstate highway in the county, and only a few major arteries to move traffic toward the District and back. If one artery is blocked or significantly slowed, there is seldom a good alternative route.
The presence of Dulles Airport, while a great asset for the county, limits the road network, since any arterial routes for commuters have to run north or south of the airport to funnel traffic to employment centers in Fairfax, Arlington and the District. The Potomac River presents another obstacle to traffic flow, since there are only a few river crossings in the metropolitan area.
People who live closer to the District, who have access to a Metro stop, have a rail alternative. But for those who commute from Loudoun, even the closest Metro stops in Fairfax County are a long drive away, and parking lots and garages fill up early in the day.
A widely publicized traffic study recently listed the ten cities in the nation with the worst traffic congestion. Los Angeles was second worst, Washington was sixth, and Chicago ranked 10th. These rankings are consistent with my own experience.
There are many factors that contribute to traffic congestion, and I do not claim that the presence or absence of rail is the only factor, or even the most important one. But if I try to picture Chicago without rail and Los Angeles with an extensive train network like Chicago has, I can easily imagine their rankings being reversed.
I realize that people commuting from Ashburn on the Metro will not have as pleasant a ride as my father did 40 years ago on the old Chicago and North Western commuter trains. The Metro will be more crowded, and it will have harder seats, more stops and a less predictable schedule. But it will be part of a system that can take riders not just to the District, but all over the metropolitan area.
I also realize that Loudoun County will continue to grow in population, probably by hundreds of thousands of people. I believe that Metro is the best, most realistic commuting alternative to keep our road congestion from getting much, much worse than it already is.
That’s just one reason I think Loudoun will benefit from Metro service – if the Board of Supervisors allows it to come here.
joe brewer
6:49 am on Thursday, June 21, 2012
That's all fine and just dandy. Make sure Loudoun's financial liabilities are limited and show mw how you are going to pay for it before you decide to opt in or out. If Mr. Potter and the metro people will not grant the extension to allow for a informed decision by our Supervisors then OPT OUT!
Jason
11:32 am on Thursday, June 21, 2012
Why is every conversation surronding anything political so heated. Thanks to the editor for a good view point. I for one will pay a little extra for the greater good of our comunity (our comutters) especially if it lightens the trafic load. Stay calm and learn to listen as well as talk to others especially the ones that have to make this difficult decision.
joe brewer
11:50 am on Thursday, June 21, 2012
What comment are talking about? Mine seems very safe and sane. If Clarke, Higgins and Reid make a official motion with their 21 point list then I think things will get warmed up. As it is their 21 point list is bloviating and nothing of substance unless a motion is made. I like a rowdy conversation myself as long as you leave the cussing out Bring on your insults and mockery. I find some of the writers here should be working for network TV cause they are so funny. If you are real sensitive well there is always California you can go to.
Melvin Summers
11:53 am on Thursday, June 21, 2012
It is a heated conversation, because some do not want to pay a little extra for the betterment of our community. They feel they do not use the Metro so why pay for it. They are the same ones that do not care about the environment because they will not be on this Earth when global warming completely gets out of control. We owe this project to our future generations as well as todays.
MIke
2:20 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
Perhaps its not because it's NOT a "little extra" and metro will not better our community, it will bring more crime and not alleviate traffic as much as some would have us believe.
Stacey F
4:26 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
Since when does a train have a hidden compartment for criminals? Maybe they tunnel under the tracks, hiding their devious faces, waiting to pounce on the unsuspecting surburbanites.
Sorry, but there's already crime and criminals in Loudoun. That's the most hysterical (as in HYSTERIA) argument in this whole debate.
Luisa
9:16 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
Oh didn't you know? The criminals are going to pay $$ to ride all the way out here to Loudoun County so they can participate in criminal activity! Come ON. The metro doesn't cause people to commit crimes good grief.
All excellent points Mr. Barnes! Thank you for sharing your thoughts.
Sherri Isbister
12:37 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
Very good article. If Loudoun is the richest county in the United States, why are they having so much trouble paying their bills? Where is all the money going?
Sure isn't going to their employees. Educators have not gotten a cost of living increase in 5 years. Health benefits just went up 8%. Everything seems to be going up here but our salaries. I think the Metro is a good idea. It is an alternative way to get out of town.
Dave
1:23 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
Common misperception about Loudoun being the richest county (it's not, not even close)... Loudoun has the highest per-capita income (in other words, average income per household). You are right though, the educators here are getting a bit of a raw deal and should be a bit upset... at the hands of the 'anti tax' noisemakers. Yes, Loudoun has a high property tax rate - but you don't pay a county tax to pay for those local services either (like MD - I moved from there two years ago, and my overall tax burden here is *much* lower even with the higher property tax - the state tax is pretty similar). Since you don't have much of a commercial tax base in Loudoun (compared to Fairfax), the property tax has to be higher to support a baseline level of service/education to be competitive with Fairfax and other comparative local jurisdictions. For - eventually - lower residential property taxes, we need a reason and infrastructure for commercial entities to consider Loudoun in a few carefully chosen area... and Metro is the key to doing that anytime soon. Keep Loudoun a great place to live and bring the jobs here - build Metro!!!
CC Mojo
3:34 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
Dave, thank you for explaining that. I think a lot of people are confused about the county economics in general and how commercial tax revenue would absolutely offset any residential taxes, eventually (as you said).
Phil
2:26 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
As a Southern California resident, I thought I would chime in regarding train service here. It is true that the trollies and light rail that used to crisscross Southern California were removed with the onslaught of the automobile back in the 1950's. However, Southern California is gradually rebuilding its light rail system with a new leg of a rail line opening today to Culver City. Although it's no match for the number of people who commute by private vehicle, there are tens of thousands who get around via light rail everyday. SoCal's current transit controversy has to do with a proposed rail line that will go to Santa Monica, under a corner of the Beverly Hills High School playing field. That's our NIMBYism. Here's a map of the current SoCal transit system: http://www.metro.net/riding_metro/maps/images/rail_map.gif. Anyway, great metropolitan areas, worldwide, proactively seem to build transit systems that support their people and commerce. Loudoun, it seems, needs to decide what it wants to be. Otherwise its development and civic health will be slowly strangled by the inability to get around. We in Southern California have some experience in this regard, but at least we're dealing with it.
MIke
2:27 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
I would suggest that if metro were to come to Loudoun, it should be entirely funded by the ridership, and not funded at all by the taxpayers of the county. If it is not profitable enough for that case, then it should not be considered. Metro will be going to Dulles Airport, without a cent from Loudoun tax payers. Lets look at ways to improve our infrastructure (like road improvements and buses that will take riders to the metro at Dulles) that will not sack taxpayer dollars that we should be sending to pay our teachers and deputies, and firefighters better.
PFC Prolapse
2:33 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
NO NEW ROADS!!!!! THE ROADS THAT ARE BUILT SHOULD BE PAID FOR BY THE PEOPLE DRIVING ON THEM!!!! IT'S UNFAIR TO ALL THE TAX PAYERS!!!!!!!
Stacey F
4:19 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
How are those road improvements going to be paid for, and better salaries for teachers, police and firefighters?
Metro is going to encourage business growth in Loudoun, increase our ability to fund those projects and help with commutes, closer jobs, stabilize the area from the DC political budget fluctuations, etc. That's why we need, and want Metro in Loudoun.
PFC Prolapse
2:31 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
How was your drive to work this morning all you NO RAIL!!! IT BE EEEEEEEEEEVIL!!!!! people?
joe brewer
2:38 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
Teachers in Loudoun do not pay for their health benefits. They will have to pony up 5% but they will also get a raise in pay to cover the 5%.
John Davenport
5:04 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
I favor the Metro into Loudoun because it will stimulate the economic development that will ultimately lower our residential tax burden. We live in western Loudoun & still won't be that close to the last stop, but we need the shops, businesses and office parks that will provide jobs, convenience and tax dollars to Loudoun County. LoCo is going to keep growing, and we can decide now to not just be a bedroom community for Fairfax, but to take control of our own future.
Bob Bruhns
6:26 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
Why doesn't anybody protest the bloat in the price of this rail extension? The per-mile cost is two times what it should be, and this 100% excess pricing is confirmed by the few prices that FTA revealed in their July 3, 2011 White Paper. (Up until then, MWAA had hidden the numbers by 'redacting' them, so nobody could see them.)
So you are fighting over tax increases to pay for something that has a double sized price tag. Why aren't you fighting the people who are trying to get you overcharged for this? You know, when you bought your home, if somebody had handed you a price that was two times what other similar homes cost, you would have been out the door. If you went to buy a car, and the dealer handed you a price that was two times what any similar car cost anywhere else, you would have been out the door. But somehow, the great and wonderful MWAA (cough, cough) and your so-called 'leaders' can hand you a price that is two times what the same thing cost in similar places, and you are falling for it! And, you will be paying two times THAT, because of finance charges on the loans you will have to get, and yet you are still falling for it. What's up with that? And you haven't even started to look at the future costs from WMATA - the tunnel expansion, the deferred maintenance... what's up with that?
abroderick
11:51 pm on Friday, June 22, 2012
You protest enough for all of us, Bob. Most of us see the value of the Metro. Of course the people this decision really involves are Loudoun County residents. Where do you live again Bob? Why does this concern you so much that you are so violently opposed to a decision that will change your life very little?
Bob Bruhns
12:31 am on Saturday, June 23, 2012
Just because people like the idea of a rail line is no reason to pay a Billion and a half dollars too much for it. Get the price down to earth!
abroderick
11:58 pm on Saturday, June 23, 2012
First of all so many numbers have been thrown around you can't know anything for sure. Please don't use some document you created to back up your story. Second of all no one is asking you to pay all of it, or even any of it because you don't live here. You never answered my question either. Why do you care about this so much?
Bob Bruhns
1:34 am on Sunday, June 24, 2012
You don't think that this is a crooked project, ab? Then, pray tell - how did MWAA and FTA just happen to make EXACTLY the same $53 million financial mistake on the cost of the RT 28 rail station, if they had independent financial consultants? You don't know, and you don't care, do you.
Face it. This boondoggle costs two times what it should. It is a total ripoff of me, my neighbors, and the entire region. I am sick to death of crooked business, government and media boondoggles pocketing billions of hard earned taxpayer dollars like this. THAT is why I'm so concerned that I have the unmitigated gall to actually study the issue and disagree with you, ab.
abroderick
11:56 pm on Sunday, June 24, 2012
I care about the business that would be brought to Loudoun County. Tax payers will see the benefits of Metro and will eventually be paid back one way or another for their part in this. The Metro is important for economic growth in Loudoun County. That is why I support it because it will benefit "me, my neighbors, and the entire region."
abroderick
11:57 pm on Sunday, June 24, 2012
And another thing it is not a ripoff to you because you do not live here.
Michelle Foster
7:39 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
OK, the roads should be paid for only by the people who drive on them. Great. Now I want to stop paying the part of my taxes that goes to putting your kids through schools. And stop paying for the crews that clean your roads after it snows since we've built our businesses out of our home. And not pay for the fire trucks that come to your house because mine has never burned, or the police since I'm a law-abiding person. Where does this logic take you??????
The Baconator
11:04 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
That is a very good point. We should stop the part of our taxes that pays for space exploration because we have never been to space. The poor astronauts would have a huge bill. That logic of I'm not going to use it so I don't want to pay for it doesn't make sense. Plus, even if you don't plan on using it, you will still benefit from the cleaner air, less traffic and property values that will go up due to being good location for Metro.
abroderick
11:54 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
If I never drive a certain road in Virginia it doesn't mean my taxes shouldn't go to fix it up. I live in Loudoun County and I am willing to see the tax raise for a better economy and safer roads. I welcome the Metro.
Melvin Summers
10:08 am on Friday, June 22, 2012
We all have to pay taxes and we should all have to pay a little for the Metro. The project is too important not to do, and we can afford it. We should do a county wide sales tax to help pay for it. The Metro will be here for generations to come and will be vital to this county.
Yes to Metro
Bob Bruhns
11:08 am on Friday, June 22, 2012
So you are all saying "Hey, let's all pay two times what everything is worth." Oh, but not for everything - only for this rail project. Interesting.
Chris Lopresti
11:44 pm on Friday, June 22, 2012
I am saying that I will pay what the Metro is worth to me. To me it is worth the additional tax money. No, not everything is worth extra money. Thank you for trying to dumb down the mindset of an entire group of people just because you don't agree with them. That's the kind of thing a playground bully does.
J Williams
9:31 pm on Friday, June 22, 2012
Where are the facts that this project is costing twice what its worth? What are you basing that on...besides the cost of a rail station in CT? Simple fact that things cost different in different parts of the country. Just look at house prices in the North East and then in someplace like Texas, or look at NYC compared to just about anywhere.
Do you have any facts to support this Bob...other than ones you made up yourself?
Chris Lopresti
11:46 pm on Friday, June 22, 2012
Thank you for seeing the ignorance in this argument.
Bob Bruhns
11:55 pm on Friday, June 22, 2012
J Williams - please. Take a LOOK at Fairfield, Connecticut. It's a very rich suburb of New York City. The comparison is completely valid - our stations costs two times what they should. But since you asked... here goes.
I happened to have read the July 3, 2011 FTA White Paper, where the FTA said that the RT 28 rail station would cost $136 million. But then I happened to notice that the news media suddenly started publishing a very different Rt 28 station price - $83 million - totally without comment. That's how I noticed this whole cover-up. Otherwise, I might have been ignorant of it, as most people still are - because our news media is still covering it up, to this day. Here is some proof:
FTA July 3, 2011 White Paper:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/metro/documents/Dulles_Rail_White_Paper.pdf
Explanation for $53 million Rt 28 station cost discrepancy in FTA July 3, 2011 White Paper:
http://www.bruhns.us/civic/DullesRail/2011-08-03-Fairfax-County-RT28-Station-Cost-Confirmation.pdf
(continued)
Bob Bruhns
11:55 pm on Friday, June 22, 2012
Then I thought, gee - if the FTA bungled the Rt 28 station cost... then what else did they get wrong? I wondered about the prices that they assigned to the Rt 28 rail station, and the Rt 28 parking garage, and the other four Phase II parking garages, and the job overall. Were their advertised prices realistic? And I found the fairfiels Connecticut metro station. As I say, Fairfield Connecitut is a very wealthy place, very much like Loudoun County.
Metro station in Fairfield conncticut: $39.1 million + $4.6 million for road adjustments.
Dulles Rail Phase II Metro station at Rt 28: $83 million. There is no justification for this excess cost.
Fairfield, Connecticut Station:
http://www.mta.info/news/stories/?story=484
http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Millions-more-needed-to-finish-Fairfield-Metro-1443235.php
Rail Station designs:
http://www.railway-technical.com/stations.shtml
(See the Station Design section near the end of the report.)
(continued)
Bob Bruhns
11:56 pm on Friday, June 22, 2012
I also found this:
Municipal downtown parking garage in Herndon VA, and most other places: $15,000 per space.
Dulles Rail Phase II parking garage cost, per FTA: $26,394 per space. There is no justification for this excess cost.
Cost of parking garages in North America:
http://www.vtpi.org/tca/tca0504.pdf
(Note that US-Canadian exchange rates might make these numbers slightly high - meaning the Dulles Rail Phase II overcosts might be even worse than they indicate.)
Herndon, VA (a few miles away from Ashburn): parking garage cost is $15,000 per space.
Town of Herndon, Virginia, Annual Report, Fiscal Year 2011
herndon-va.gov/Content/ARFY11FINALlongversion9-27-11.pdf?cnlid=3171
And here is a group says that a typical 145,000 square feet, five-story parking garage would cost $8.56 million, not including acquisition of the land or any demolition costs. There are usually 3.3 to 4 spaces per 1000 square feet, so 145,000 square feet is about 145 * (3.3 to 4, let's say 3.6) or 522 spaces. 8.3 million / 522 spaces = $16,000 per space.
http://www.fixr.com/costs/build-parking-garage
Yet the Phase II garages are 1783 spaces and $47.06 million average per garage. They average $26,394 per space. See 'FTA July 3, 2011 White Paper' in previous post.
(continued)
Bob Bruhns
11:57 pm on Friday, June 22, 2012
Someone tried to claim 'soft costs' for the parking garage cost - but what I find about 'soft costs' says that they mostly come from incompetent project management.
https://railforthevalley.wordpress.com/2010/09/03/why-is-public-transit-more-expensive-than-it-used-to-be/
And what about the overall cost of this rail extension? Let's compare the per-mile costs of the Dulles Rail and Franconia-Springfield Metro extensions.
Cost of Franconia-Springfield Metro Extension (1997 dollars)
3.3 miles
$175 million
$50 million estimated for the associated parking garage (a generous estimate)
total $225 million
$68 million per mile 1997 dollars
Adjustment for inflation:
$116 million to $136 million per mile 2012 cost depending on 1.7 or 2 inflation per mile
Cost of Dulles Rail Phase II:
11.4 miles
$2.7 billion (Rt 28 station and 5 parking garages dumped on counties)
$3.1 bilion (Rt 28 station and 5 parking garages listed with job)
$237 million to $272 million per mile depending on finance chicanery.
I'll put Rt 28 station and the five Phase II parking garages back into this job, because removing them to claim a 'savings' was simply an act of financial chicanery. But I'll go with the $2.7 Billion figure for now, because the Franconia-Springfield job did not involve new rail cars immediately, but Phase II does, and also I don't think there was a rail yard in the F-S job, but there is one in the Phase II job.
(continued)
Bob Bruhns
11:58 pm on Friday, June 22, 2012
So: $237 million per mile for Phase II in this comparison, versus $116 to $136 million per mile for the Franconia-Springfield job, in today's dollars. And this ratio will hold for any future inflation. There is no justification for the excessive cost of Dullles Rail Phase II, aka Rail to Dulles, aka Rail to Loudoun, aka The Silver line (Phase II).
The costs of Rail to Loudoun are simply out of line. Somebody is handing us a billion and a half dollar overcharge. People should wake up.
(continued)
Bob Bruhns
11:58 pm on Friday, June 22, 2012
And NOW, a recent Q&A with MWAA Chief Financial Officer Andrew Rountree shows that MWAA seems to be expecting Loudoun County to come up with $168 million for its three parking garages. This is not in agreement with the June 3, 2011 FTA White Paper figures (they show $130.3 million for this). Is somebody padding the numbers again?
"Eyeing Dulles Toll Road For Silver Line Funding"
WAMU, June 17, 2012
http://wamu.org/news/12/06/17/loudoun_weighs_silver_line_options_part_three
Apparently Mr. Rountree provided this chart:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/97295925/MWAA-Answers-DTR-Questions
The first dot-point says "Assuming ... Loudoun secures $168 million for three parking garages."
Hmm, $168 million for three parking garages. But the July 3, 2011 FTA White Paper shows a total amount of $130.3 million for those three garages. Apparently MWAA put an extra $37.7 million into the price somewhere. What a surprise.
From the July 3, 2011 FTA White Paper:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/metro/documents/Dulles_Rail_White_Paper.pdf
Rt 606 garage: $51.9M
Rt 772 North garage: $37.8M
Rt 772 South garage: $40.6M
Total for three garages for Loudoun County: $130.3 million, but MWAA says $168 million. Hmmm.
(continued)
Bob Bruhns
11:59 pm on Friday, June 22, 2012
Also, this MWAA chart contains another interesting error. It seems that MWAA is propagating the old FTA error. Don't they have independent cost review PMOCs? Maybe not. Hmmm.
The first dot-point of the MWAA sheet (that was apparently provided by Mr. Rountree) also says "Assumes Fairfax secures $236 million for the Route 28 station and two parking garages..."
OK, let's look at that $236 million number. The July 3, 2011 FTA White Paper (mistakenly) said that the Rt 28 station would cost $136 million, and it also said that the two parking garages (Rt 28 and Herndon) would cost $53.5 million and $51.4 million respectively. That would add up to $240.9 million, but I assume that the MWAA sheet is approximating the garage costs at $50 million each - meaning that MWAA thinks that the Rt 28 station costs $136 million, and the Herndon and Rt 28 parking garages cost $50 million each. WRONG! (Details in following post.)
The thing is, MWAA's Chief Financial Officer should know that the Rt 28 station costs $83 million, not $136 million. The $136 million figure came from a mistake by FTA in its July 3, 2011 White Paper; it was the total of the $83 million Rt 28 station cost and the $53 million Rt 28 parking garage cost. So now it seems that once again, these shady groups are counting the Rt 28 parking garage cost twice.
(continued)
Bob Bruhns
12:00 am on Saturday, June 23, 2012
$136 million cost for Dulles Rail Rt 28 station per July 3, 2011 FTA White Paper (see line item 4 on Page 2, which is sheet 3 of the pdf)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/metro/documents/Dulles_Rail_White_Paper.pdf
$83 million cost for Dulles Rail Rt 28 station per Fairfax County Executive Griffin, August 3, 2011:
http://www.bruhns.us/civic/DullesRail/2011-08-03-Fairfax-County-RT28-Station-Cost-Confirmation.pdf
I'm not sure what the extra $37.7 million is, in the Loudoun County costing in that MWAA sheet. Maybe they expect Loudoun County to pay for the Rt 772 North garage twice? Because they sure seem to be expecting Fairfax County to pay for the RT 28 garage twice, as we saw already! Maybe it provides money for some overseas junkets for the MWAA Board members? All I know is that somebody sure likes to pad these figures.
You just can't make this stuff up. People, you really need to call the cost estimating analysts out and demand to know what is wrong with the cost figures you are being handed!
Bob Bruhns
12:11 am on Saturday, June 23, 2012
Sorry about typos and stuff. I spell better than I type. Proof: "Fairfield, Connecticut" - there, I typed it correctly!
And here is a clickable link for the Herndon Virginia $15,000 per space parking garage construction estimate.
Herndon, VA (a few miles away from Ashburn): parking garage cost is $15,000 per space.
Town of Herndon, Virginia, Annual Report, Fiscal Year 2011
http://herndon-va.gov/Content/ARFY11FINALlongversion9-27-11.pdf?cnlid=3171
J Williams
8:26 pm on Saturday, June 23, 2012
Bob, I suspect you are really into conspiracy theories, and need to take off the tinfoil hat.
abroderick
12:00 am on Sunday, June 24, 2012
You really enjoy seeing your name in the comment box don't you.
abroderick
12:05 am on Sunday, June 24, 2012
J Williams thank you for that image. Might I suggest that you are overcompensating for something here Bob? This is nothing more than a long series of links and words to back up your half baked, yet intricate, theories. Your theories are just that might I add, theories. Length does not always make you more credible. Sometimes it just means you are trying too hard.
the-stix
6:05 am on Saturday, June 23, 2012
Mr. Bruhn’s suggests that his cost analysis (which he himself described as “admittedly amateur”) is more accurate than that of two professional and experienced rail estimators that took months to generate the current Phase 2 estimate. He has sent his rebuttal analysis to the Dulles Rail funding partners, the USDOT and replayed it in several other discussion forums. No one has responded to his claim that the Phase 2 cost is overpriced by 100%, and probably for the reason that they agree that his analysis in ‘amateur’.
One would think that even a prudent novice estimator would be curious as to where a 100% discrepancy would come from, and attempt to refine his methodology to understand the difference, even if he didn’t agree with the differences. But not in this case.. an explanation could be that his so-called analysis resulted in an answer that supports his opposition to the project and he feels no need to go any further. Wouldn’t want the facts to get in the way of a good opinion!
He clearly is the modern-day Diogenes roaming cyberspace looking for just one person to agree with his 100% overcharge allegation. So far he is batting zero, which puts the rest of his arguments in perspective.
Bob Bruhns
9:53 am on Saturday, June 23, 2012
Where did the FTA get the bungled $136 million figure for the RT 28 station cost, and how did MWAA make exactly the same mistake? Evidently there is a common source that hands both of them their numbers, or one simply copied the other's numbers and claimed to have done an analysis - or they actually conspired together deliberately, and made the numbers up. But clearly, they did not conduct independent analysis.
I'll keep pointing this stuff out, for the sake of the region. A Billion and a half dollars of overcharge on this unnecessary job will ruin this area.
I am tired of watching compicit government, business and news media interests rob entire regions, and others should be tired of it as well. But people are so beaten down that all they say is "Ohhhhhh.. What-EVER! Just leave us alone!" Unfortunately, that enables the kind of ripoff that we see going on here.
The Baconator
1:46 pm on Saturday, June 23, 2012
Good to see your fingers are getting so much exercise today Bob. How is Herndon today? You are really concerned with the Loudoun County government, you should move here. Every vote counts. My vote is for Metro however. It's time we stepped into the 21st century, and installed a transportation system that will allow Loudoun to continue to grow, and continue to be one of the highest per household income areas in this wonderful country of ours. And Bob, It's a beautiful day outside, you should take a break from the computer and get a little fresh air.
J Williams
8:29 pm on Saturday, June 23, 2012
Wait..are you saying Bob does not even live here in Loudoun? Then why such a passioned interest in what happens here when it has nothing to do with him? This info just discredits him more in my eyes, thanks for the info.
The metro will benefit us here in Loudoun over the long term in many ways, I look forward to it being built!
Bob Bruhns
1:43 am on Sunday, June 24, 2012
That's the ticket, J Williams. "Oh, Bob doesn't live here, so nothing he says could possibly be true!" Never mind that I live in Phase II about two miles east of the Loudoun border. Never mind this ripoff is going to affect me bigtime. Nope. Nobody east of your county border could possibly say anything that is true. Oh, except for that economist from George Mason University. His word is Gospel. Right? Sheesh.
The Baconator
11:38 pm on Sunday, June 24, 2012
I look forward to it being built too J Williams, this county has needed this for a really long time. The opt outers just don't think the project will personally serve them so they aren't for it. The fact is even if you do not use the Metro, you will still get benefit from it.
Melvin Summers
2:27 pm on Saturday, June 23, 2012
Raise the money through small increases in a lot of the taxes that already exist today. People will not hardly notice the money leaving their pockets in small amounts and the stream of money would be constant. There are ways to work this out so it isn't so painful people. Maybe I need to run for office and teach people about creative thinking.
Yes to Metro!!!
Melvin Summers for Loudoun County Board!!!
Chris Clemente
1:00 pm on Sunday, June 24, 2012
Thank you to the author for sharing personal stories. So many comments focus only on personal polarized views and most of those opposed to rail in Loudoun have very little actual knowledge of the positive impacts of rail to the region and the positive impacts to the budget of the counties that embrace rail. The budgets of our closest neighbors that have rail, Fairfax and Arlington, have benefitted greatly from rail. All the talk about the cost of rail would be different if the commentors would take the time to read the reports produced by Fairfax and Arlington detailing how their fiscal position has been enhanced by rail. By way of example, in Arlington the majority of real estate tax revenue is generated from the minority of acreage because of the smart growth planning encouraged by the Arlington Zoning Code. This spares countless residents from the tax burden and contributes greatly to the county's ability to provide services to residents. The Opt Out crowd cannot ignore these type of facts, so they prefer to promote their cause by fear mongering and distortion of the facts. It would be a shame if the 9 supervisors ignore the overwhelming support demonstrated by their constituents in countless surveys and petition drives and allow the minority represented by the Opt Out group to push their twisted personal agenda. All you need to do to understand the facts is take time to do the research of the many many benefits of bringing rail to Loudoun.
joe brewer
5:34 pm on Sunday, June 24, 2012
Population density might have something to do with the results or it just might have a lot to do with it. All you do is blow smoke where are the numbers you speak of. Before rail and after rail? Arlington is what 12 to 1 in population and Fairfax is 5 or 6 to 1. 600 people per square mile does not support metro. Twisted I may be but my ol'lady likes it! OPT out
Melvin Summers
5:58 pm on Sunday, June 24, 2012
This county has the worst public transportation in all of the Northern Virginia area. It's time we stepped into the 21st century and installed public transportation that will take us through the 22nd century. Thats a part of the equasion that the opt outers want to over look, once Metro is built it is here for good, and will do nothing but help this area grow.
Yes to Metro
joe brewer
12:23 pm on Monday, June 25, 2012
Melvin I have a shovel and a wheelbarrow job for you, I believe that's a step up for you and the supervisors who are pro-rail.