Didn't Scott York also say “MWAA is causing this project to derail. The numbers aren’t adding up and when the numbers don’t add up, you can’t continue making decisions that are costing the project more and more.” Oh, but that was BEFORE MWAA and the FTA dumped the job of building three parking garages onto Loudoun County. And that made him happy??? Apparently so. Strange, isn't it. Very strange.

Doesn't the cost of this rail project seem high? Did you know that the Phase I and Phase II line-item costs have been deliberately hidden by MWAA all along? FTA revealed a few of these costs that MWAA hid - have you looked at comparable costs for similar systems to see if we are being overcharged? Are you aware that the prices appear to be 70% to 100% high? Do you realize what finance charges add to the cost you pay, when you are charged so much that you have to finance this over fifty or more years? Do you really WANT to pay many times what this should cost?

Do you realize that the proposed rail stations are on the east side of your county? Do you realize that you will need a day-and-night bus system to get people to and from the rail stations? Who do you think will pay for that?

Do you think you have been given the real price for this rail project? Haven't you been strung along? Aren't you set up to be surprised and surprised and surprised, with ongoing additional costs that have not been mentioned or considered? Did your leaders or the news media happen to mention the audit of this rail project that was announced in March 2012 (they did not). Did your leaders or the news media mention the 70% to 100% excessive costs? (They did not.) Why are you being kept in the dark?

Let's present all the facts on the parking decks. Loudoun is trying to find a developer to build them. If that doesn't happen, those costs go back to the project and Loudoun is responsible for 4.8 percent, not the estimated $90-$150 million they will cost. There has also been discussion that the parking fees could cover debt service and them become a revenue stream for Loudoun's Metro contribution.
And I will also point out that while it's true if you add up the year-over-year costs Loudoun pays $1 billion (more, depending how long you stretch it out), anyone who finances a home faces this situation to some degree. They will ultimately pay much more for their home than the sale price. That seems to be an argument against financing purchases. But I'm sure there will be a retort to this.
Anyone else out there want to weigh before tomorrow's vote?

Of course there will be a response. If you were handed a price for a home that was 1.8 to 2 times what other similar homes in similar areas (or even right nearby) cost, would you buy that house? Especially if you had less expensive options? I suspect you would not.

The rail stations appear to cost two times what they should cost, based on a recent Metro station built in wealthy Fairfield, Connecticut. The one and only Dulles Rail rail station price that leaked out was the Wiehle Avenue station clone at Rt 28. First the FTA said $136 million, then they corrected that to $83 million. (Funny, the news media never happened to mention that little mistake.) Look at the Wiehle Avenue station. Does that look like $83 million to you? Really?

The parking garages were listed at more than 1.7 times what similar structures cost. Nearby Herndon Virginia expects to pay $15,000 or less per space for its downtown devlopment parking garege, yet the Phase II garages are listed at $26,394 per space - and the cost estimates are in a remarkably narrow range, suggesting less than honest estimates. Do you think developers are lining up to build these garages for free, and then turn over the proceeds to the county? I really don't think so.

The overall Phase II job is priced very high, and apologists justify this by pointing to the similarly overpriced Phase I, where MWAA also concealed the line item prices. Hmmm. I submit that we have been handed an overpriced mess by the same MWAA that has proven to be a horribly managed joke, and our leaders and news media have been substantially less than forthcoming about the negatives of this project. How can your county government approve this ripoff?

Dusty in the Leesburg Today from May of this year it states "Under the Memorandum of Agreement among MWAA, the state, Fairfax County and Loudoun, the jurisdictions will pay for the construction of the parking garages or find a private funding partner for them. Loudoun would be responsible for one parking garage at Rt. 606 and two at Rt. 772, the end of the line station." That's 3 for Loudoun I do not see where there is a breakdown in costs that say we only pay the 17 million or so, can you clarify for me?

to joe brewer,
The MOU was created to try to reduce overall project costs, but some of the items didn't necessarily do that. Loudoun has three garages, while Fairfax has to build the Route 28 station and a garage. That's all correct. The idea was to try to shift those costs to developers, but that was left to the county's to work out. If Loudoun cannot negotiate deals with the business community/developers to construct the decks, then those items go back into the overall project. That was part of the MOU. In that case, Loudoun's responsibility returns to 4.8 percent, the county share for the entire project. Does that help? It was part of the initial agreement that they revert back. Several supervisors appear confident developers will help out.

My apologies for the typos.

Bob, I don't think it's strange. I think it's politics ... as usual.

Dusty made a good point. Loudoun County and Fairfax County can certainly manage to 'fail' at getting the Rt 28 station and the five parking garages built. If they play that card, those costs can revert to the Silver Line project, where almost everybody was pretending that those costs had simply gone away. (SURPRISE!!!)

I'm sure that the county leaders will take a bow for this clever 'savings' of 84% (for Fairfax County) to 95% (for Loudoun County), much as the DOT and the FTA took a bow when this little "now you see it, now you don't, now you see it again" sideshow was conceived in mid 2011.

After that planned surprise, the tolls can go up even higher. (SURPRISE!!!) But that doesn't matter, because the counties will then roll out the planned Billion Dollar Bonds, and pretend that they just thought of them. "Hey, we'll just borrow and pay down the tolls... and then you (and your children and grandchildren) can pay back this unexpected (cough, cough) borrowing with another 50 to 70 million tax dollars a year, for fifty or more years!" (SURPRISE!!!) And then they will stop, and smile for a while - at least until WMATA shows up talking about the 'unexpected' Rosslyn Tunnel expansion costs, and the $13 Billion deferred maintenance costs. (SURPRISE!!!)

You conveniently forgot the excessive price that you would finance with that mortgage. If you were handed a price for a home that was 1.7 to 2 times what other similar homes in similar areas (or even right nearby) cost, would you buy that house? Especially if you had less expensive options? I suspect you would not.

Notice the lie that was in that letter. The Rt 28 parking garage plan says that there will be 2027 parking spaces there. And the final stop is Rt 772, not Rt 606. I wonder if that person even lives around here.

2011 FTA White Paper
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/metro/documents/Dulles_Rail_White_Paper.pdf

That is correct, Bob. There's parking planning at 28, 606 and 772. Of course, the number of spaces needed was based on having all the stations, so I suspect that would have changed the demand at 28. But I guess it's a moot point now.

Well we appreciate you contributing to what you consider poor coverage (although others disagree, including opponents of the project). But in terms of not having the appropriate information, people should know that the tolls on the Dulles Toll Road will rise regardless of Loudoun's participation, if phase II is constructed. Loudoun's decision has little impact on that. We have reported about the tolls, by the way.

As for Ken Reid, it remains to be seen where he stands on the project (WAMU reported over the weekend that he is in support, but I haven't been able to confirm this). I presume that his constituents who oppose the project don't want to be taxed for it, and perhaps he feels the proposed district spares them. That's my guess.

The Patch reporting has been phenomenal. I've been delightfully surprised that more news (not opinion) about Metro to Loudoun has come from the local "Patches" than anywhere else. I think all the editors deserve recognition, especially when dealing with news AND commentators. :)

You have a poll on your own campaign page that shows 34% of people think that out of control spending is the biggest problem.... and you are posting comments encouraging MORE out of control spending?

http://www.chisholmforcongress.com/component/acepolls/poll/1-what-is-the-biggest-challenge-our-country-faces.html

Good luck getting my vote... you've certainly encouraged my to donate funds to whomever is running against you.

The Silver Line is Heavy Rail, and it comes at almost a double price for mostly on-ground Heavy Rail in an existing right of way, and then you have finance charges, plus deferred maintenance on all of the WMATA system, and you have the future Rosslyn Tunnel expansion that is being carefully ignored right now, and you have the road toll paydown that will saddle Fairfax County and probably Loudoun County as well with another 50 to 70 million per year of payments for fifty years or more. This rail project is going to break the bank.

Reality check.. spending money for no good reason is not usually a good idea. to just blindly buy in and saddle Loudoun residents and businesses with burdensome taxes in ridicules.

Mr. Chisholm,
While I don't know you or your agenda, cutting the DOD budget appears to be the easiest solution because it's so large but the repercussions can and will be felt in our own communities. A large part of the commuting work force is supporting DOD contracts and services within the DC metro area. We cut the DOD budget we in essence will be impacting the very work force that pays taxes, uses local restaurants and stores to support our small businesses and finally people will have to leave the area to find better work opportunities. If sequestration hits in January 2013, the policy has the potential to impact about 1million people and add 1 percent to the unemployment rate. If it's votes your looking for, use your political clout to ask Congress to take a 20% paycut across the board, just the Senate alone costs 40 million a year for 100 active Senators - what about the retired ones? The Congressional Pay and Retirement system costs more to support than paying all personnel on Active Duty.

Thank You

And we can save even more by not wasting our tax dollars on trains that do not benefit the majority of constituents in the area.

Are you a Democrat? You certainly want to spend our tax dollars like one...

I was hearing $30 million to $50 million per deck, which matched the math per space that was being discussed at the time.

I think the $17 million figure is bogus. There is some confusion about the cost estimates in this job, and on top of that, the estimates are 76% to 100% high.

Loudoun County took on the construction of three parking garages (Rt 606, Rt 772 North, and Rt 772 South). The FTA estimate for these is $130.3 million (2011), but MWAA now says $168 million (2012).

If Loudoun County fails to deliver, these revert to MWAA, and Loudoun County has 4.8% responsibility. 4.8% of that would be $6.25 million (per FTA) or $8.06 million (per MWAA).

Fairfax County took on the construction of two garages (Rt 28 and Herndon) and one rail station (Rt 28 station), totaling $187.9 million (per FTA 2011) or $236 million (2012 per MWAA).

If Fairfax County fails to deliver, these revert to MWAA, and Fairfax County has 16.1% responsibility. 16.1% of that would be $30.3 million (per FTA) or $38.0 million (per MWAA).

My guess is that MWAA is padding the numbers in preparation for default by the counties.

From the July 3, 2011 FTA White Paper:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/metro/documents/Dulles_Rail_White_Paper.pdf

Rt 606 garage: $51.9M
Rt 772 North garage: $37.8M
Rt 772 South garage: $40.6M
Rt 28 garage: $53.5 million
Herndon garage: $51.4 million

Rt 28 rail station: $136 million (later corrected to $83 milion)

$83 million cost for Dulles Rail Rt 28 station per Fairfax County Executive Griffin, August 3, 2011:
http://www.bruhns.us/civic/DullesRail/2011-08-03-Fairfax-County-RT28-Station-Cost-Confirmation.pdf

--

From MWAA Chief Financial Officer Rountree:

Eyeing Dulles Toll Road For Silver Line Funding
WAMU, June 17, 2012
http://wamu.org/news/12/06/17/loudoun_weighs_silver_line_options_part_three

Apparently Mr. Rountree provided this chart:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/97295925/MWAA-Answers-DTR-Questions

The first dot-point says "Assumes Fairfax secures $236 million for the Route 28 station and two parking garages and Loudoun secures $168 million for three parking garages."

Hmm, so is the point that Metro is too dangerous for Loudoun? Just wondering?

Still safest way to travel...far more car accidents. What is the point of this?

So if I understand you correctly, you're saying you would specifically boycott businesses because they're located inside the proposed special tax districts? That seems like a very round-about way to protest Metro. I'm not quite sure I understand that logic and what exactly it would accomplish. Regardless, if that's what you chose to do, you'd be in such a small minority that I suspect it would have little to no impact on those businesses. I also suspect the increase in sales these businesses would experience from being near a Metro station would far far outweigh any such boycotts.

Lastly, if you actually look at the estimated annual expenditures of what Metro would cost the county, it would amount to just a few percent of the county's annual budget. Hardly a nightmare of a tax burden.

I'm not quite sure what would make naysayers happy. It sounds like the BoS has come up with a financing plan that would put nearly the entire burden on businesses and yet-to-be-built residential units around the stations. In other words, your taxes won't go up. But still that's not good enough? Would you be happy if Metro paid us to be in the county?

That's right mike, spend an extra 3 or 4 dollars in gas to avoid an extra few cents in taxes. You are a funny funny man. Maybe you and bob should go on a bus ride together.

Yes to Metro

I would prefer to see the cost come down to earth before being foisted onto taxpayers (like me). This is the real 1% who collect, versus the 99% who pay. The reason the 99% don't overthrow the 1% who rob them is that the 99% fall for the story, until way down the road it dimly dawns on them that they were had. By then, they don't remember exactly who did what, most of the players have moved on, and nobody remembers or cares. All that will be left, will be the taxes and the train.

Dulles Toll Road users are going to take a licking regardless of if Loudoun opts in. The ship has sailed on that. Even if we opt out, tolls are still going to be astronomical. Opting out may keep tolls slightly lower, but not by much.

Luisa.. that you believe it will only be a few 'extra cents' shows how misinformed you are.

~Your friendly informed neighbor in Ashburn.

As I said somewhere else, I only wish that the political hacks who created this horrible rail plan had played with model rail at some point in their lives. Then we might have a decent rail station plan at the Dulles airport, instead of the monstrous three mile loop of elevated rail and the elevated station (a quarter mile from the air terminal) that we were tricked into demanding, when that magnificent MWAA circus was threatening us with the even worse plan of a three mile loop of tunnel instead. "ANYTHING to make it more expensive," that's their motto.

Wasn't that fun? The cost difference danced up and down, depending on whether the underground or above ground plan was being pushed. Oh, $600 million, $300 million, $330 million, $450 million, $562 million, a change a minute! What a farce.

So we were handed the choice between their Horrible Below-Ground plan, and their Horrible Above Ground Plan. We should have chosen to laugh them out of the region. Oh well.

It's been fun, pen-name posters. Bye! Too bad you won't be around to apologize when this project hits the wall again and again and again.

Melvin, I was actually being as accurate as I could be. I had to temper the two to one Dulles Rail overcost number, because more careful review indicated it was really about 1.8 to one. I don't believe this is going to be a huge windfall for this region, and an 80% overcost is not a good thing. I also don't want every rail construction job in the country to point to this 80% bloat and pretend that it is the normal price. I just hope it is a net positive, I hope the Rosslyn Tunnel can take the extra load for a decade or so, and I hope WMATA doesn't dump its $13 billion maintenance backlog onto us out around here any time soon.

Certainly it will be good in a 1/4 mile radius around the rail stations. You really will need a day and night bus system for the county, and I really don't think the cost of that was considered. I really do recommend that you put in a dedicated lane or dedicated road bus system, and hopefully business will build up and the future rail development will be done right.