Was Survey a Game-Changer on Metrorail?
Surveys can influence the decision-making process by unveiling public opinion on key issues.
Of all the numbers that emerged from Loudoun County’s recent survey of residents, one loomed larger than all the others – 78.
That is the percentage of residents who said it was important for the county to focus on providing rail transit service in the next few years. This surprisingly high percentage may have been a game-changer in the recent debate leading up to the Board of Supervisors’ narrow approval of the Metrorail extension into Loudoun County.
Last week I gave some background on the history of the county’s public opinion survey. From 1995 to 2007, the county conducted a biennial survey that gathered demographic information in addition to the opinions of a random sample of 1,000 Loudoun residents.
Funding for the survey was cut from the budget after the 2007 survey. I do not think it was a coincidence that the survey was resurrected in time to influence the decision-making process on the issue of Metrorail – possibly the board’s most significant decision in decades.
The Center for Survey Research (CSR) at the University of Virginia conducted the survey under contract with the county. It carried out most of the interviews from May 8 to June 3 and released its preliminary results on June 18 – a remarkably quick turnaround. It is telling that CSR released the preliminary survey results at a Board of Supervisors meeting on the Metrorail issue.
According to the preliminary report, residents were asked how important it was for the county to focus on transportation issues such as commuter bus service, local bus service and rail transit. About 55.5 percent of respondents said rail transit was very important, and 22.7 percent said it was somewhat important, for a total of 78.2 percent in the “important” column, including sizable majorities in both rural and suburban parts of the county.
The debate on Metrorail changed dramatically after the announcement that about 78 percent of survey respondents favored rail transit. Until then the public debate seemed to be relatively evenly balanced between rail supporters, led by the business community, and a group of very vocal opponents.
At that time, it was not at all clear whether Board Chairman Scott York would be able to garner the necessary five votes to approve the project. York, Ralph Buona and Shawn Williams were supporters, and Matt Letourneau appeared to be leaning in favor. But the other five supervisors had few if any good things to say about the project, and some were openly opposed to it.
The fact that 78 percent of survey respondents said they supported rail transit changed the momentum of the debate and put rail opponents on the defensive. Board watchers tried to guess how the different supervisors might vote on the issue, and it appeared from time to time that Ken Reid, Suzanne Volpe, Janet Clarke or Geary Higgins might vote in favor of the project. Only Eugene Delgaudio was a certain “no” vote.
As we now know, only Reid joined the other four rail supporters to approve the project, and only he knows the reasons for his vote.
Reid had long been an opponent of rail transit, and his vote to approve the project surprised many observers. Reid came under fire from rail opponents who said he betrayed them. His explanation for his vote, as reported by Tom Jackman of the Washington Post, focused on the planned creation of tax districts that would cover the county’s operation and maintenance costs.
But that does not explain why a rail opponent would vote in favor of the project unless there was another compelling reason to do so.
Was Reid influenced by the survey results? Again, only he knows. But I don’t think he got where he is by ignoring popular sentiment. In this case, the number 78 would have been a powerful motivation for him to vote in favor of the project. And I respect his decision to do so.
I also wonder what some of the rail opponents, like Clarke or Volpe, would have done if Reid had announced that he would vote “no.” It might have been much for difficult for either of them to cast the deciding vote to kill the project.
York has served on the board long enough to know the importance of gauging public opinion in making decisions on key issues. To the extent that he was behind the decision to resurrect the survey, he deserves credit for exerting quiet leadership in rounding up five votes for Metrorail.
David A. LaRock
1:47 pm on Monday, August 6, 2012
Jim Barnes, you just don't get it. Getting a positive result on a survey may help with the promotion of an idea, partly because it shifts the focus away from meaningful debate. We elect leaders to be trustees, to dig deep and find value for us. Ken Reid had been digging in and he knew Metro is bad news for Loudoun, and even then he betrayed his constituents.
May I suggest Jim, that you provide some constructive service to your readers. Instead of pointing to leading survey questions such as, "Do you want Metro to help with traffic?" Please ask for and share an answer to this question, "Where is there any credible study, or proof of any kind, that paying out billions for Metro will help improve traffic or the economic condition or quality of life in Loudoun?" If and when you realize that has never been established, you will be one giant step closer to knowing what Ken Reid knew when he flipped and voted Loudoun into Metro. Metro is ALL PAY'IN and NO GAIN. At least that's what the experts say.
Tax Pig
2:50 pm on Monday, August 6, 2012
http://loudounoptout.blogspot.com/2012/08/where-is-joe-may.html
So, where is Joe May when it comes to protecting his people from this outrageous waste of taxpayer’s and toll payer’s money that is being used to pay giant perks to retired MWAA employees and send union bosses traveling around the globe? Joe May is silent.
Todd
4:13 pm on Monday, August 6, 2012
I don't trust surveys, numbers can be skewed to say anything. Whatever happened to seeking out the TRUTH? Instead of collectivist mob rule, put your finger to wind kind of stuff... Besides, did you see the number 1 response on that "survey"... New roads, which the METRO will take funding away from, and make traffic worse. Loudoun is desperate for improved transportation, too bad their leaders took advantage of that to fleece the citizens by passing a development deal.
Satchmo
4:58 pm on Monday, August 6, 2012
Geez would you guys give it a rest! You lost, and you aren't providing any additional opinions than those that didn't win! Shouting louder and longer ain't gonna change that.
Ellie Lockwood
5:22 pm on Monday, August 6, 2012
I was not one of the residents in this poll but a quick look at the results demonstrated that traffic issues were the key concern but the percentages for the five options were instructional. Highest was 86% for road improvement followed by 77% for rail, 74% each for improving commuter bus and walk/bike improvement, 69% for local bus service. Taken as a whole I don't see any overwhelming support for rail beyond a generalized option. Having heard Ken Reid speak rather eloquently and expertly on why the Silver Line was NOT beneficial to Loudoun County I'm not persuaded that the survey results were a deciding factor in Reid's surprising vote.
Roberto Costantino
7:18 pm on Monday, August 6, 2012
The Loudoun Rail Tango: The Loudoun Rail will hardly be a progressive structure; rather, it is a central part of a grand real estate scheme for private gain. The subject survey was commissioned to produce the desired result. That much is clear. We now face the prospect of a bloated Metro Silver Line Phase II/ Loudoun Rail budget along with a host of consequences including little movement of traffic along Route 7. The simple fact is that confiscatory tolls and very high Metro fares & parking fees are going to force more and more folk on to Route 7. One can expect heavy equipment, trucks and vehicles of every description to divert to Route 7 and to choke it from the Beltway all the way to Winchester. School transportation will greatly suffer and students will be the victims. For all intents and purposes middlling folk, the working poor and young people are just not going to be able to afford to use anything else but Route 7. I have tried to understand Ken Reid's vote and have given him the benefit of the doubt. Nevertheless, I think it was a mistake. But, he was not alone; it took five Supervisors to dance the Loudoun Rail tango, Bob Costantino
Roberto Costantino
7:40 pm on Monday, August 6, 2012
Correction: ...a grand real estate scheme for public and private gain
CC Mojo
9:22 am on Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Since when does economic development hurt schools? Traffic disruptions are going to happen no matter what, simply due to the entire road structure being overloaded with cars. Metro isn't going to make things worse, and it's a stupid scapegoat for those of you against the concept of progress, since our roads will be just as affected by NOT having Metro.
The numbers in the poll were reflected at the public input meetings held. It's not like those people were ignorantly voicing opinions based on some general "ooooh, shiny train!" mentality. Reid was merely listening to the people, which is his job, and why he was elected. Not to decide what is in HIS best interests, but to vote according to the people who elected him.
Its a shame when a politician actually does her/his job the right way. Oh, the humanity!
MIke
11:14 am on Tuesday, August 7, 2012
After speaking to Reid, I believe he voted the way he did because he felt that his constituents in Leesburg would be sheltered from the costs of the project. What Reid is gambling on is that the Tax district will cover the millions of dollars that Loudoun is now on the hook to pay one of the most mismanaged organizations (MWAA). What Reids constituents do not realize, and what most folks in Loudoun do not realize, is that the Tax district can not / will not be able to generate enough revenue to offset the costs of the project. The shortfall will be made up from general funds. General funds are where we make improvements to schools, and existing infrastructure. For the next few years, we will be taking from our schools, so we can have a shiny train to nowhere.
CC Mojo
11:27 am on Tuesday, August 7, 2012
And the general funds will increase due to the development created by Metro, IF that even is a concern or an option. The schools and infrastructure will not suffer for Metro, that's ridiculous. If that was the case, there wouldn't be plans for new schools, new roads, etc.
Tax Pig
11:51 am on Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Mojo you love to say, "We get better jobs, better commute, better living "
This comment epitomizes absolutely everything that's wrong with this Country. A collection of special interests, primarily developers and commercial realtors, presents a collection of unassociated prospects, ties them all together, presents them to the public, and the public believes them - not because there's a basis in fact, but rather because it's nice to believe it's true.
Rail has ->nothing<- to do with jobs. Companies are not going to spend millions of dollars relocating an office within the county to be near a rail station. Out of state companies will not relocate here at a cost of perhaps 10's of millions of dollars just because there's rail.
We heard similar arguments in the dot-com boom. "If we build it, they will come, because N.Va. is the self declared head of the dot-com industry." They built it - no one came, except some companies that were so poorly managed (stupid) they all went bankrupt. Many of the buildings are **still** empty.
http://loudounoptout.blogspot.com/2012/08/where-is-joe-may.html
CC Mojo
12:30 pm on Tuesday, August 7, 2012
So, what's wrong with this country is optimism? Well, founding fathers be damned! What were they thinking?
Companies have been coming, are here now, and will continue to come, and Metro is a HUGE part of that. The developments planned are prime examples of why I'm so optimistic. Its not ALL because of Metro, of course not, but it definitely has a large impact on attracting businesses to the area - which we need and want.
You're so far away from reality, piggy, that you can't even spell your own name, or names, right anymore. I guess that's what happens when you spend too much time with a large plastic pig, and not in the real world.
Tax Pig
12:53 pm on Tuesday, August 7, 2012
If the Metro Kool-aid ever wears off or your contract as a paid pro-Metro blogger runs out, read this. You'll find that if a project is good enough to succeed it does not require massive infusions of OPM.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443931404577549223178294822.html
Bob Bruhns
1:44 pm on Wednesday, August 8, 2012
So a lot of people thought that rail was important, or somewhat important. Did that mean we should have paid almost two times what it should have cost for construction, and does that mean that we should have ignored the other costs? Did it really mean that we should have accepted a really bad deal? Evidently some BOS members thought it did. I don't happen to agree with them.