10 Reasons Why Loudoun County Will Get Metrorail

Controversy over the location of a proposed Metrorail station at Dulles Airport has raised the possibility that the extension of the Silver Line to Dulles Airport and into Loudoun County might be scrapped altogether.

Over the past few weeks, the discussion among local, regional and federal officials has broadened in focus, from the location of the rail station to the need to reduce the overall cost of the project.

Chairman Scott K. York, among others, has raised the possibility that Loudoun County might withdraw its support from the project if costs to Loudoun taxpayers and toll road users are not reduced. This would certainly kill the extension of Metrorail into Loudoun County, and perhaps the extension of the Silver Line to Dulles.

I doubt that it will come to that. Here are 10 reasons why I believe Loudoun will eventually get the Silver Line:

1. Money.  There is tremendous economic development potential for the area surrounding the two planned Metro stations in Loudoun County, and Metrorail would provide infrastructure that is currently missing. Moreover, the economic development benefits would spread throughout eastern Loudoun County and even to Leesburg. The Dulles Greenway made Loudoun County much more accessible to Dulles Airport and the greater Washington, D.C., region, and so would Metrorail. Economic development is king just about everywhere, and Loudoun County is no exception.

It is worth noting that when Tony Howard of the Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce and representatives of other area chambers recently went public with their concerns about the cost of the Silver Line project, they did not argue that the project should be scrapped. To the contrary, they expressed concern that the project might collapse if the costs were too high.

2. Metrorail is an essential component of Moorefield Station and other planned developments along the Silver Line.

3. Property values in the “shadow” of Dulles Airport (west of the airport) will likely go up if people who live there and commute east have an alternative to driving or taking the bus around the airport, on increasingly clogged roads. Increased property values would also increase revenues for the county government.

4. While economic development may be king, surveys show that transportation is the most important issue for Loudoun County residents. As noted above, the Silver Line would provide a much-needed transportation alternative, especially for people who live in the shadow of Dulles Airport.

5. The Board of Supervisors has repeatedly stated its strong support for Metrorail. The Countywide Transportation Plan, which was adopted by the current Board of Supervisors, states that the Metrorail project is one of the priority transportation projects for the county and region: “This project is considered particularly important for the County’s transportation system as it provides vital surface transportation links to Dulles Airport and offers convenient commuting opportunities for County residents who work in Fairfax County and other jurisdictions in the Region’s core.“ In 2002, the Board stated for the public hearing record “its strongest support for the extension of the Metrorail system into Loudoun County.”

6. Metrorail would also provide another option for workers who prefer to live in or near Washington, D.C., and “reverse commute” to jobs in Loudoun County. This would expand the pool of potential workers for businesses located in Loudoun County.

7. As a general rule, politicians like to build things, not to stop projects from happening. York, Congressman Frank Wolf, and other local, state and federal officials have worked hard to make this project happen. They won’t want to be remembered for having the project die on their watch.

8. The Obama administration has gotten involved, with Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood as the main player. He appears to want a solution as much as the local leaders do, and would seemingly have the muscle to forge a compromise among the involved parties.

9. There are powerful motivations for the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) to find sufficient cost savings in the project to ensure its viability. MWAA member Mame Reiley, who chairs the committee responsible for overseeing the project, has been the leading advocate for the current plan, which includes the underground station at Dulles Airport.  However, her comments in a recent Washington Post story suggested that she is prepared to lose that battle if it is the only way to salvage the project.

10. Which brings us back to…money. Like “location” in real estate, money occupies several slots in any list of the top 10 factors driving decisions involving land development and transportation. In this case, there is a lot more money to be made by building this project than by stopping it. When in doubt, I would bet on that.